In the context of public administration modernization and the development of the higher education system, the issue of ensuring the civil service with qualified personnel has become particularly relevant. The effectiveness of public institutions largely depends on the alignment between the training of specialists in higher education institutions and the needs of the public sector. In this regard, there is a need to analyze the balance between the supply of personnel from the higher education system and the demand for specialists in government bodies. The purpose of the study is to assess the correspondence between the training of specialists in higher education institutions of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the staffing needs of the civil service. The methodological basis of the research includes comparative and statistical analysis methods, as well as forecasting methods. The empirical base of the study consists of official statistical reports from higher education institutions on the number of students and graduates, as well as analytical materials from government bodies regarding the personnel structure of the civil service. Within the framework of the study, an analysis of the structure of specialist training in the higher education system was conducted, and a forecast of graduate output up to 2029 was developed. Based on a comparison between the projected number of graduates and the staffing needs of the public sector, potential imbalances between the supply of graduates and the demand for personnel were identified. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the use of reporting data from higher education institutions to forecast the output of specialists and to assess the prospective staffing of the civil service. The results of the study can be used in the development of public personnel policy and in improving the system of specialist training for the public sector.

Human Resource Management (HRM), public service, human capital, university graduates, personnel shortage