The relevance of this study stems from the need to supplement conventional, predominantly linear models of change management in higher education institutions with mechanisms for systematic feedback and iterative adjustment of managerial decisions. The study aims to develop an external diagnostic loop for Agile-oriented organizational change management in a university and to conduct its initial empirical validation using data from the Independent Demand Rating of Higher Education Institutions of the Republic of Kazakhstan (IAAR) for 2018-2025. The empirical base comprises 350 institution-year observations consolidated into 76 institutional trajectories, accounting for renaming and restructuring events. Longitudinal descriptive analysis, cohort comparison, stability-of-presence assessment, TOP-5 and TOP-10 retention measurement, and inter-annual positional mobility analysis were employed. Findings indicate that 18 institutional trajectories appeared in the published TOP-20+ across all eight years, 18 in five to seven years, 27 in two to four years, and 13 only once. In 69.8% of comparable year-to-year transitions, the positional shift did not exceed one rank, and in 84.1% it remained within two ranks, suggesting a stable core alongside ongoing rotation of the peripheral segment. A six-stage diagnostic cycle is proposed, encompassing external signal detection, contextual interpretation, change portfolio formation, short-cycle implementation, internal and external outcome verification, and retrospective institutionalization. Rating position is treated not as a direct indicator of change management quality, but as an indirect external signal. The findings establish a well-grounded architecture for a diagnostic module suitable for integration into university quality assurance systems and for further development within a comprehensive Agile-oriented change management mechanism.

change management; higher education; Agile; organizational agility; university rankings; quality of education; Kazakhstan